A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
